As the Israeli and US elections draw closer, the risk of renewed war with Iran is growing. Iran has responded to a provocation carried out by the Israeli Air Force about a week ago, under the direction of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with a series of military moves.

The missile units of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps conducted several launches on Saturday from central Iran as part of a surprise exercise, which Iranian websites reported with considerable fanfare. There were also other actions, which Israeli censorship has prohibited from being published.

Clearly, the timing is no coincidence. Iran had refrained from conducting missile tests for a certain period. But now it has decided to send a signal against the backdrop of what Tehran interprets as threats by Israel and the United States to attack Iran immediately after Israel’s general election this week and the US midterm elections next week.

Iran conducts activities such as missile tests to sharpen its message: it will not remain passive in the face of an Israeli and/or American attack and will respond accordingly.

About a week ago, Iraqi websites reported that Israeli Air Force aircraft had flown over Jordan and Iraq, approaching close to the Iranian border. Following these reports, several Israeli media outlets published stories about the flights a few days later.

The Financial Times reported last Wednesday, October 21, that Netanyahu had planned to launch an attack on Iran on October 10, on a larger scale than the February 2026 attack, but that he was stopped by Trump.

Over the past two weeks, Netanyahu has made efforts to provoke the Iranians and draw them into military action, thereby giving him an excuse to respond with a powerful strike. These provocations have taken the form of statements against Iran, delivered against the backdrop of Israeli Air Force aircraft and at military bases.

As if that were not enough, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth arrived in Israel on a secret, surprise visit that was fortunately exposed. He met with Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz. Hegseth’s stated reason for the visit was to meet American troops stationed at Ovda Air Base, in the Negev desert. Dozens of American refueling and combat aircraft are stationed at the base.

Netanyahu understands that his chances of winning the election and forming the next government are slim. His solution is to provoke a crisis and drag Israel into another round of warfare that would lead to the postponement or even cancellation of the elections.

This is not the first time Netanyahu has sought to set off a chain reaction that would lead to a war drawing in the United States. He tried to do so in 2010, together with then-Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who has since severed ties with Netanyahu.

The two convened the heads of the security establishment at the Mossad headquarters in Glilot. Those attending included then-Mossad chief Meir Dagan, IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, and Shin Bet director Yuval Diskin. The purpose was to persuade them to cooperate with the plot.

Netanyahu and Barak’s idea was to “put the system on alert”—in other words, to carry out a series of intelligence and security measures, such as concentrating forces and calling up reservists, to provoke the Iranians into taking military action against Israel. That would provide the necessary pretext for an Israeli attack.

But the three officials refused to go along. They demanded that Netanyahu convene the security cabinet and obtain a formal, written decision to order the operation. Netanyahu and Barak backed down because they knew they did not have a majority in the cabinet, which at the time included, among others, conservative but responsible ministers such as Benny Begin, Dan Meridor, and Moshe Ya’alon. The IDF was not mobilized, and the intelligence services were not activated.

Today, one can only wonder why the leaders of the opposition bloc, which hopes to vote out Netanyahu, have almost entirely refrained from accusing him of trying to drag Israel into yet another unnecessary war.

Even more troubling is that IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and Israeli Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Omer Tischler did not unequivocally oppose sending Israeli aircraft on a provocative mission on the eve of an election—one that would put dozens of pilots and navigators at risk.

The explanation provided by the IDF was untrue and unacceptable. The chief of staff and the air force commander should have slammed their fists on the table, stood their ground, and prevented such a politically motivated, cynical and dangerous move. If that had failed, they should even have threatened to resign. But it is difficult to expect a spineless chief of staff and a new air force commander—whose appointment Katz tried to block—to show any backbone.

There are still about 48 hours until the polls open, and the danger of war resulting from a provocation or a miscalculation has not yet passed.

It is quite astonishing that a head of state would make every effort to bring about a military attack against his own citizens. No less astonishing is that no one is standing firm against these efforts.

This article was published in Hebrew on October 24, 2026